20 Of The Best Ice Free Arctic Failed Predictions

It seems they have no shame and the agenda is to just scare you into compliance

One day, some day soon, the Artic will be ice free, right!? Wrong, so so wrong. Here are 20 of the best Arctic will be ice free failed predictions. From scientists to politicians to the climate cult backers in the media, time and time again the prophets of doom have been wrong. The real question is, why does anybody even listen to them anymore? Take this data and share it with your favourite net zero zealot climate cult follower and blow their mind.

The scorecard

20 ice-free Arctic predictions vs. reality

Who said it, when they said it, the year they said the summer ice would be gone, and the source. A struck-through year is a deadline that has already passed.

  • 20Predictions
  • 18Deadlines passed
  • 2Not yet due
Predictions of an ice-free Arctic summer: year the prediction was made, who made it, the predicted ice-free year and whether that deadline has passed, the key quote, and the source article.
Said in Predictor Predicted ice-free Key quote & source
2007 Wieslaw Maslowski (Naval Postgraduate School) 2013 (deadline passed, prediction failed)

“Our projection of 2013 for the removal of ice in summer is not accounting for the last two minima, in 2005 and 2007… So given that, if you want to be conservative, we can postulate that maybe our projection is already too conservative.”

2007 Jay Zwally (NASA) 2012 (deadline passed, prediction failed)

“At this rate, the Arctic Ocean could be nearly ice-free at the end of summer by 2012, much faster than previous predictions.”

2007 Louis Fortier (Université Laval, Director of ArcticNet) 2010-2015 (deadline passed, prediction failed)

“According to these models, there will be no sea ice left in the summer in the Arctic Ocean somewhere between 2010 and 2015. And it’s probably going to happen even faster than that.”

2007 Mark Serreze (US National Snow and Ice Data Center) 2030 (deadline not yet reached)

“If you asked me a couple of years ago when the Arctic could lose all of its ice, then I would have said 2100, or 2070 maybe. But now I think that 2030 is a reasonable estimate.”

2007 Al Gore (former US Vice President) 2013 (deadline passed, prediction failed)

“North Polar ice cap is falling off a cliff”

2008 Olav Orheim (Norwegian International Polar Year Secretariat) 2008 (deadline passed, prediction failed)

“If Norway’s average temperature this year equals that in 2007, the ice cap in the Arctic will all melt away, which is highly possible judging from current conditions.”

2008 Mark Serreze (US National Snow and Ice Data Center) 2008 (deadline passed, prediction failed)

“We could have no ice at the North Pole at the end of this summer… We may have no ice at all in the Arctic Ocean in summer by 2030 or so.”

2009 John Kerry (US Senator) 2013 (deadline passed, prediction failed)

“Scientists project the Arctic will be ice-free in the summer of 2013.”

2011 Wieslaw Maslowski (Naval Postgraduate School) 2016 (±3 years) (deadline passed, prediction failed)

“Our best guess is 2016, plus or minus three years.”

2012 Mark Drinkwater (European Space Agency) 2020 (deadline passed, prediction failed)

“If this rate of melting [in 2012] is sustained in 2013, we are staring down the barrel and looking at a summer Arctic which is potentially free of sea ice within this decade.”

2012 Peter Wadhams (Cambridge University) 2015-2016 (deadline passed, prediction failed)

“This collapse, I predicted would occur in 2015-16 at which time the summer Arctic would become ice-free. The final collapse towards that state is now happening and will probably be complete by those dates.”

2013 The Guardian (citing scientists) 2015 (deadline passed, prediction failed)

“Arctic ice-free by 2015.”

2013 Peter Wadhams (Cambridge University) 2015 (deadline passed, prediction failed)

“It could even be this year or next year but not later than 2015 there won’t be any ice in the Arctic in the summer.”

2013 US Navy 2016 (deadline passed, prediction failed)

“A US Navy scientist predicts that the Arctic could lose its summer sea ice cover as early as 2016 – 84 years ahead of conventional model projections.”

2013 James Overland (NOAA) and Muyin Wang (University of Washington) 2020 or earlier (deadline passed, prediction failed)

“Time horizons for a nearly sea ice-free summer for these three approaches are roughly 2020 or earlier, 2030 ± 10 years, and 2040 or later.”

2016 Peter Wadhams (Cambridge University) 2017 or 2018 (deadline passed, prediction failed)

“Next year or the year after, the Arctic will be free of ice.”

2018 James G. Anderson (Harvard University) 2022 (deadline passed, prediction failed)

“The chance that there will be any permanent ice left in the Arctic after 2022 is essentially zero.”

2018 Peter Wadhams (Cambridge University) Next few years (2020-2022) (deadline passed, prediction failed)

“One of the most eminent climate scientists in the world, Peter Wadhams, believes an ice-free Arctic will occur one summer in the next few years and that it will initiate a dangerous methane feedback that will increase temperatures dramatically.”

2019 Alexandra Jahn (University of Colorado Boulder) 2020s (as early as before 2030 in some scenarios) (deadline not yet reached)

“The Arctic Ocean could become ice-free in the summer in the next 20 years due to a natural, long-term warming phase in the tropical Pacific that adds to human-caused warming.” (Note: This implies potential for early 2020s in accelerated scenarios, which has not occurred.)

2020 Ge Peng et al. (NC Institute for Climate Studies / NOAA NCEI) 2023 (deadline passed, prediction failed)

“One model projected an ice-free summer as early as 2023”

Source links open in a new tab. Quotes are reproduced from the linked articles.

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